The time-value of project predictions

All predictions have a decay factor with respect to their accuracy over time, by virtue of the fact that they are, after all, predictions. However, not all decay factors are the same, and not all project types are affected by the same decay in prediction accuracy. For example, below is a chart (based mostly on empirical observation) representing the relative time-value of project task predictions for three industries (click to enlarge):
The above graph shows the decrease in prediction accuracy relative to the time of the prediction; in other words, the forecast accuracy that an event or task predicted to occur at a certain time in the future will occur when predicted.

Agile is still predictive

A common differentiator between Waterfall/Traditional software development and Agile is the concept of “predictive” vs. “adaptive.” However, this does not mean that Agile does not provide predictions – nor, conversely, that Waterfall cannot be adaptive – but that Agile and Waterfall are predictive (and adaptive) in fundamentally different ways.

Structured Agility: Plan Scope Management

The PMBOK v5 defines plan scope management as “the process of creating a scope management plan that documents how the project scope will be defined, validated, and controlled.”

In this post, I will be discussing the Agile implementation of that process.

Structured Agility: Project Scope Management

The PMBOK v5 defines project scope management as “the processes required to ensure that the project includes all work required, and only the work required, to complete the project successfully.”

In this post, I will be providing an overview of the Agile implementation of that process.

When worlds collide

Having been on both sides of the aisle, it is easy to see how the SDLC and Agile camps can believe themselves to be mutually exclusive. After all, from the “plan-first” point of view, the perceived “just build it” mentality of the Agilists seems somewhat reckless and cowboy, while the “plan everything” mentality seems hopelessly wasteful and doomed to pointless failure, for the “feature-first” crowd.